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Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:15 pm

The EU Stocks to be Headed South on Trade Spats and Political Collisions


European stocks are now under a certain pressure, as investors are wary about further European Central Bank’s monetary policy developments.
Traders expect that as Eurozone inflation rises, the regulator will continue to stick to the harsh monetary policy and will further raise rates. Investors share the fears of even greater global trade protectionism and financial market volatility that have been raised by ECB President Mario Draghi. Moreover, they are upset that the Quantitative Easing monthly net asset purchase will be halved to 15 billion euros in October and will be ended altogether by December 2018.
Another driver fuelling investors’ concerns is the lack of certainty about the US-China trade war prospects along with tenser relationship between Europe and Saudi Arabia. UK officials have begun drawing up a list of Saudi security and government officials who could potentially come under sanctions connected with the disappearance of famous dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who has been missing since he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The US may come forward with similar sanctions. If this happens, Saudi Arabia global oil supply will be curbed dramatically, and so the oil prices will rise again.
Inside the Eurozone, investors never stopped being worried about the still unresolved and very important Brexit outcomes and conditions including how the Irish border fits into any Brexit deal.

Meanwhile, London and Brussels have little time left to agree a workable Brexit, as they need to reach the withdrawal agreement in November at latest. If they fail, the agreement will not be able to go through the ratification process by March 29, 2019 (the Brexit deadline), which could trigger the ‘hard’ Brexit that would cut off most UK ties with the EU including the agreements, arrangements and regulations it currently observes as a European Union member and cause uncertainty about the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:32 am

The EU Majors’ Financial Figures, Italy Budget Crisis and Brexit Will Remain the European Stock Market Highlights

In the days to come, the EU stock market traders will be on the watch for the EU’s major’s financial figures that are currently being announced as well as for the Italy budget crisis updates and Brexit news.

Investors expect that Brussels will probably ask Italy to revise the country’s budget for 2019 and will reject the current version of the budget with the deficit set at 2.4% of GDP. In the meantime, another focus of interest for traders is Brexit. With the looming Brexit deadline of March 29, 2019, the UK needs to strike the withdrawal deal in November at latest so that it could go through the ratification process in time and take effect by the Brexit date. The no-deal Brexit is to be the ‘hard’ Brexit feared by investors.

On the positive side, the European market majors have recently announced their financial results that appear to be quite strong, which will underpin the EU stocks dynamics in the offing.

A negative thing is that the EU market-watchers apprehend a new rate hike by the US Federal Reserve that seems to believe that it makes sense to further raise rates amid the country’s strong economy according to the Fed minutes from its September meeting.

And again on the negative side, the US-China trade war tensions have never eased. Though the US Department of the Treasury has so far declined to label China as currency manipulator, the Treasury report says that China, along with five other countries, has currency practices that require close attention.

As the US-China trade quandary remains unresolved, the EU investors are wary that European car imports into the Unites States might be hit with higher tariffs. Meanwhile, as the car tariff hike threat appears to be less acute, the EU’s new light motor vehicles sales grew by 2.5% with 11.95 million new cars sold from January to September 2018.
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Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:52 am

The European Markets Might Recover Somewhat Amid Globally Stronger Investment Environment

In the offing, the European stock indices might continue their growth, as the investment climate has become better globally.
Specifically, the financial scouts watching the European financial markets say that the traders feel upbeat because they anticipate the US-China trade war to be successfully resolved. Investors are now awaiting the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping that is planned to be held on October 29. The way how the China’s stock exchanges reacted was driven by the statements made by the governor of the People’s Bank of China (Xi Jinping). Should the meeting eventually happen, it will become the first rendezvous of the two leaders since the trade spat had exploded.
Furthermore, European investors expect that the Chinese government will offer support to the country’s business sector that is being hurt by the US-China trade contradictions. The governor of the People’s Bank of China has earlier announced to investors that they may remain appeased, as the regulator will undermine the country’s economy amid the current challenges.
On the negative side, the financial scouts are still wary about the Italy’s economic outlook, as the budget crisis faced has never been resolved. The European Commission is concerned about three things regarding the country’s budget, that is, how the national debt, the budget deficit and the economic growth will be managed. According to the EU regulations, a member country’s budget deficit may not be greater than 3% of its GDP. Meanwhile, Italy is the EU’s largest debtor after Greece with its debt-to-GDP ratio at 131.8%.
Another front burner issue for the EU is Brexit. Investors are hopeful that the UK will finally be able to reach the deal. Brussels and London need to work out the final Brexit agreement in November at latest so that the deal could go through the ratification process and become effective by the Brexit cutoff date. Should the withdrawal deal fail to be reached, this is likely to trigger the ‘hard’ Brexit. And that’s what investors actually apprehend.
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Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:09 pm

Europe’s Markets to be Dominated by Pessimism, as Global Exchanges Are Battered By the Negative Developments


The financial scouts expect that in the days to come, Europe’s markets will continue to be dominated by the surge of negative developments that has lately overpowered the major global markets. The sell-off hitting the EU markets was also fuelled by the weakening oil prices.
Lately, the bulk of the negative market news has come from the US, whose weak statistics and the looming new interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve make investors feel pessimistic. Moreover, the Fed has said that the US companies fear that they may be hurt by new Chinese import tariffs. The businesses now have to deal with higher commodity prices driven by the tariff rises, and so they plan to charge higher prices to their customers.
Another point of interest, according to the financial scouts, is that traders are awaiting the Italy’s budget crisis outcomes. Previously, the European Commission rejected the country’s draft budget and asked Rome to submit a new one within three weeks. Yet another negative driver is that investors are wary that a worst case Brexit scenario will play out. So it is likely that the post-Brexit transition period will be extended.
And finally, a major source of pressures for the EU markets is the global oil market uncertainties, with the investors too often overwhelmed by the sudden price hikes and slumps.

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Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:02 pm

European Markets to Be Volatile Amid the Massive Uneasiness

European markets will continue to be volatile, following suit of the mixed dynamics seen by the stock exchanges globally. But then, Europe’s markets have recently been much more moderately downbeat than the rest of the world’s markets.
For the EU markets, a key driver fuelling the uneasiness and insecurity is the US-China trade war outlook and how China’s economy’s prospects might be affected. As China’s industrial profits decreased after nine months of the current year, traders expect the country to face more economic challenges that might be triggered by the still unresolved US-China trade conflict. Though the People’s Bank of China has pledged policy support to the national economy that will be offered should the country be hurt by the challenges, investors understand that this would only allow the country’s to keep its economic performances at their current level.
Financial scouts note that investors are waiting for the S&P’s decision regarding Italy’s credit rating amid its budget standoff with Brussels. The country’s long-term credit rating by S&P has so far remained untouched at ‘BBB’. But now investors expect that Italy’s credit rating outlook might be downgraded to ‘negative’.
Yet another source of uncertainty is the global oil markets with its unstable prices showing mixed trade. What attracted the traders’ interest was that Iran’s top government officials say that the country’s oil exports will not fall below 1 million barrels per day on the looming new US sanctions.
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Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:52 am

European Markets To Lag Behind the Rest of the Markets Globally On Unresolved EU Issues

In the nearest term, Europe’s markets are likely to be rather downbeat versus key global markets. The European indices might show negative dynamics after the previous period of their modest growth despite the mainly pessimistic environment.
As for the American and Asian investors, they are substantially optimistic mainly due to the robust financial figures reported by the major US companies. Furthermore, traders are now expecting that the US-China trade war might finally be resolved, as the US President Donald Trump said a “great deal” with China was around the corner.
Meanwhile, the European markets are more apt to be driven by the EU news with investors watching things like what will happen next regarding Brexit. Financial scouts say that even though no deal has been reached yet, some progress seems to be seen. The good news is that the British bank stocks’ performance might be bolstered by the fact that the UK banks will be able to operate soundly in the EU after Brexit happens.
On the negative side, Europe’s markets, together with any of the markets globally, will face pressures from the falling oil prices. Once there has been no reason to expect a possible oil supply shortage due to the Iranian oil exports cut on the back of the US sanctions, the oil prices were headed dramatically south, since traders are now confident that Libya and Saudi Arabia can supply enough oil to keep the market satiated. Thus, there are no fears anymore that the market might run short of oil.
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Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm

Financial Scouts Say Europe’s Traders Will Continue To Follow News About The US-China Trade Conflict, Brexit
Europe’s stock markets will continue to face some pressure due to the US-China standoff resolution uncertainty. EU traders will also keep track of the Brexit news and global oil market developments.
Trade differences between the US and China will remain the focus of interest for European investors. The news regarding the trade spat are quite contradictory, with the markets propelled upwards and downwards interchangeably every time a fresh piece of trade war news appears. However, some progress has been seen here, so traders are awaiting positive updates on this arena.
Brexit news looks similarly ambiguous. London and Brussels have little time ahead to agree, which fuels traders’ concerns, as they apprehend that a ‘hard’ Brexit will happen. Meanwhile, some headway has been seen here, too. Specifically, concessions have reportedly been secured from Brussels to keep the whole of the UK in a customs union in the wake of Britain’s withdrawal.
Another market experiencing a quite high volatility is the oil market, with the volatility driver being Washington’s new anti-Iran sanctions that came into force on November 5. Traders originally expected that new sanctions might drive oil supply shortage in the global market due to the apprehended Iranian oil exports cut. But in light of waivers given to some countries the oil undersupply seems unlikely to happen.
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Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:33 pm

Europe Worries About Oil and Waits for the U.S. Federal Reserve System to Decide on the Rates

European stock markets are feeling optimistic after the results of the U.S. midterm Congressional elections were announced. However, some uncertainties remain due to the Brexit terms and ambiguous trends in the global oil prices.
In the course of the U.S. midterm Congressional elections Democrats won the House of Representatives, but Republicans still control the Senate. The U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with certain difficulties in implementing his initiatives, especially the trade ones. Thus, there is reason to hope that he will not be able to bring up new restrictions, particularly, ones affecting the importing of the European goods.
Financial scouts are certain that the global investors will direct their attention to the December meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, at which it can decide on increasing the rate. Forecasts expect it to be raised to 2.25-2.5%. Investors also await news of the Brexit terms.
Uncertainties of the global oil market are a cause for unrest in Europe as well. New U.S. sanctions against Iran introduced on November 5, stipulate some countries to be temporarily exempt. Italy and Greece made it to the list of those exceptions in Europe.
However, the list turned out to be quite a complicated matter for the European investors. For example, Spain has been purchasing Iranian oil as well, but it failed to be included, while Italy was.
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:34 am

EU Markets Cheered by the Draft Brexit Deal, But Investors Are Wary About Italy’s Economic Challenges
Europe’s markets are likely to be headed south as the US-China trade relationship has been stubbornly dominated by uncertainty, and also due to Italy’s economy quandary and overwhelmingly pessimistic oil market sentiment.
On the plus side, the European markets will be bolstered by the news that the EU divorce deal has been eventually reached. Despite the array of pessimistic forecasts, London and Brussels have successfully struck the Brexit withdrawal deal on all items discussed including the most touchy and contentious ones.

As far as the US-China trade spat is concerned, there has not been a hint of certainty about how and when it will be resolved. Still, investors are hopeful that the two opposing countries will get back to the negotiation table soon.
Meanwhile, Italy’s budget deficit has remained the front-burner concern for Europe, as Italy refuses to revise its draft budget for the next year including the country’s GDP growth rates and the budget deficit figures. Amid the budget turmoil, the Italian treasuries and government bonds yields are growing at an accelerated pace, which might trigger a full-blown debt crisis, as yet today, Italy is Europe’s second largest debtor after Greece.
In the French market, investors were upset by the US President Donald Trump’s bashing concerning France’s high wine import taxes curbing US wine sales in the country.

Financial scouts say that the markets are anxious globally. Oil prices change their direction every time fresh news appears, but in the medium run, traders fear that the oil supply may be excessive.
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Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:45 pm

Europe’s Markets Anxiously Waiting for the Brexit News and Italy’s Budget Developments

European investors are waiting hopefully for further progress in the US-China trade dispute to happen after some positive developments have occurred along this avenue. On the negative side, markets will continue to face pressures due to Brexit uncertainties and Italy’s next-year’s budget issues that have still not been fully resolved, financial scouts note.
Meanwhile, investors keep hoping that US won’t slap new tariffs on the Chinese imports. China says it doesn’t want to fight a trade war with the United States, while the US pledges Washington “will not change course” on trade policy “until China changes its ways.”
European traders are also anxious to know what new Brexit moves are actually to be made now that London and Brussels have worked out a draft divorce deal, as the UK prepares to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. After the draft deal has been pulled off, it needs the approval of UK MPs and each EU member state. And if it has not been approved before the Brexit day, ‘hard’ Brexit might be brought about with negative outcomes to possibly hurt the UK and the remaining EU members.
Yet another source of concern for investors is Italy’s 2019 budget turmoil with European Commission’s report on Italy's debt to be issued on upcoming Wednesday, November 21. Traders are wary that disciplinary procedure might be brought against Italy, if the country’s draft budget challenges its tax and budget commitments to the EU.
In France, the “yellow vest” protests against fuel price rises still continue. And though President Emmanuel Macron says he “hears the anger”, he seems to be set to keep taxing fuel.

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Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:02 pm

Europe’s Markets to Remain Volatile as Investors Wait for the Italy Budget Impasse to be Resolved

Europe’s stock markets are awaiting the outcome of the Italy budget crisis. Most likely, we’ll have some certainty about what really happens in early December. Investors are somewhat worried about the situation, with market prices going both ways.
The Eurogroup is scheduled to meet on December 3 and will most likely discuss the issues faced. Italy’s government are hopeful that there will have a constructive dialogue with European Commission Head Jean-Claude Juncker. Still, investors fear that Italy may be disciplined with EDP measures to be imposed against it.
Meanwhile, traders never stopped watching the US-China trade war developments, with a U.S. government report appeared that accuses Beijing of stepping up efforts to steal technology via network hacks.
Also, investors are awaiting the outcomes of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at G20 Argentina 2018 summit in December. If traders understand that trade risks still remain high after the summit, they might reasonably have reason to doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again as planned in its next meeting. So far, the Fed predicts the fourth hike before the year ends, likely coming in December.
Global oil markets are dominated by uncertainty, too, with the oil prices plummeting and then soaring again. Investors are awaiting the OPEC+ meeting in early December with the oil production cut likely to be endorsed to bolster prices. In the medium term, traders are wary that the oil market supply might be too high.
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Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:47 pm

Europe’s Markets to Remain under Pressure, As Investors Await the G20 Summit and OPEC+ Meeting Outcomes

Europe’s investors’ eyes are on the G20 summit to be held from November 30 to December 1 in Argentina. Investors expect that some new arrangements might be worked out by the US and China that would hopefully help to break the trade impasse. The positive expectations are driven by the US President Donald Trump’s saying earlier that he intends to discuss the situation with the Chinese leader on the sidelines.

Another main focus for European traders is Brexit terms that remain a front-burner concern even though key agreements seem to have been reached between Brussels and London. Meanwhile, new setbacks might still occur. Previously, the sticking point had been a rift over Gibraltar, as Spain had contested the disputed territory’s status and threatened to veto the Brexit withdrawal agreement. But eventually the UK and Spain have struck a Brexit deal over Gibraltar.

On the positive side, the European indices might be underpinned by the euro weakening versus the US dollar, as investors become less attracted to high-risk assets including high-risk forex investments and now tend to prefer buying robust currencies like US dollar.

And on the negative front, oil prices continue to face pressures even though some OPEC members, primarily Saudi Arabia, have been sending out signals that the decision to curb oil production might be taken in the OPEC+ key meetings to be held in Vienna from December 5 to December 7.
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Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:49 am

What is financial scouting?

When referring to the term financial scouting, people mean the searchin for good trading opportunities in the financial market, done both quickly and professionally.
A financial scout or a financial scouting service sets out to find investment opportunities that fully meet a trader's needs, this being their primary task. Such investment opportunities may be both high- and low risk.
Want to know what is the difference between financial scouting and investment advisory? - Visit https://libertex.com/blog/what-financial-scouting

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Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:23 pm

In Europe, All Eyes Are On the G20 Summit
European traders will keep close track of the G20 summit. They wait for potential important statements to be made regarding the global economic outlook, and for agreements to be reached to address the US-China trade war.
On the downside, investors are wary now that the US leader has promised to unleash tariffs on European car imports, so Europe’s carmakers feel downbeat.
Meanwhile, on the positive side, traders’ worries about possible fourth rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve were somewhat soothed. The Fed’s chairman Jerome H. Powell made a market-invigorating statement saying that the US economic outlook remains strong, but the Fed might consider a pause in its interest rate hikes next year to assess the impact of its credit tightening. Mr. Powell said the benchmark interest rate was “just below” the neutral level.
Financial scouts note that the two continuing main concerns for Europe are Brexit divorce conditions and the Italy budget standoff. According to new official figures, withdrawal from the European Union under the government’s plans could cut the UK’s GDP by up to 3.9% over the next 15 years, but leaving without a deal could deliver a 9.3% hit to GDP over the same period, says the analysis produced by departments across Whitehall.
Oil will be the focus of interest for the European investors as well, as they hope that the oil prices might be bolstered if OPEC+ members decide to cut the supply to curb the current glut in their meetings from December 5 to December 7.

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Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:27 pm

Which opportunities does financial scouting bring?

When it comes to financial investments, being ahead of the others is a key to success. The drivers influencing the price are constantly changing. This makes it necessary to always monitor both micro and macroeconomics and act fast. As Leo Szilard, a famous scientist, once said, 'In order to succeed it is not necessary to be much cleverer than other people. All you have to do is be one day ahead of them.' This is the best phrase to describe financial scouting, the new service that enables faster trading and gains more profit.

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Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:23 pm

Marijuana Stocks Falls into the Correction Territory

Major Canadian pot stocks were broadly lower, with some prices currently falling by as much as 5 to 6%. The sector has been into the correction territory after soaring in October on recreational cannabis sales rollout in Canada.

Now we see a big share price reversal versus the peak prices. The Sector’s leaders Canopy Growth Corp and Tilray Inc fell by about 50% versus their 12-month highs. And some other key names in the sector like Aurora Cannabis Inc plummeted even lower.

On the positive side, some good news appeared that, as financial scouts note, might refuel buying in the sector. Specifically, first-ever medical cannabis growing licenses were awarded to private businesses. And some more countries like the UK and Germany might possible make marijuana legal as well.

Another big positive news for the marijuana sector companies was that Canopy Growth and some other major cannabis producers have been on the Bloomberg’s 50 Stocks to Watch in 2019 list.

We can expect that given a lengthy correction after the bursting growth in October Canopy Growth (СGС) stocks may be down by $29-30 within the week, while Tilray might drop to $100-105, and Aurora Cannabis Inc, Aphria Inc. and Cronos Group might hit the lows at $4.5-$5, $6.5-$7, and $8.2-$8.5, respectively.

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Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:43 pm

Europe’s Investors on the Sidelines, Eyes on Brexit and OPEC+ Meetings

European investors’ are waiting to know the Brexit talks outcome and the OPEC+ potential oil supply cut decision.
The G20 summit has yielded good news it brought a temporary truce between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreeing that China will not impose new tariffs on the U.S. car imports and so boosting Europe’s carmakers’ stocks.
Meanwhile, European traders are waiting for the Brexit situation to be finally resolved, with some doubts persisting over if the deal will be reached, with no-deal divorce still a real possibility.
After the G20 summit, all eyes are on the upcoming OPEC+ meetings over December 5-December 7, with the decision to cut the oil supply to hopefully be taken by the organization’s members to curb the oversupply that, as traders fear, might hamper the global oil demand for the next year.
The bad news was Qatar’s announcement of its quitting OPEC as part of the country’s long-term strategy for growing its international energy market presence with a focus on gas. Meanwhile, Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to extend the OPEC+ oil pact into next year. So now investors have to sit and wait for some certainty about the oil supply levels.
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Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:00 pm

Europe’s Markets Will Be under Pressure as Traders Await Brexit Deal Decision and Italy’s Draft Budget Revision

For the time being, European investors await the outcome of the UK cabinet meeting to be held soon to see if the draft deal is approved. Meanwhile the UK Parliament continues its debate on the deal ahead of the December 11 vote. If the deal is rejected by the British MPs, the UK will have to leave the EU without a deal, which will hurt the country’s economy badly. So far, the deal is criticized both by the ruling party and opposition.
Traders are anticipating next steps European Commission is bound to make to expand euro use to limit the dominance of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Eurocommission believes that stronger euro will help boost the global financial system’s stability. The euro expansion proposals from Brussels will be considered at the EU leaders’ summit later this month.
Another thing that keeps all eyes on it is Italy’s budget, with the country to submit the new draft budget for 2019 to the European Commission that has rejected the previous draft. Italy’s government is currently contemplates the budget deficit reduction from 2.4% of national GDP as was previously proposed.
Yet another concern is France, with investors waiting for the fuel tax increase to be suspended amid increasingly violent “yellow vest” protests, with France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s reputation bitterly undermined after the three-week unrest.
As for the oil sector, financial scouts think that Europe’s investors’ sentiment will be significantly influenced by which way oil prices will go after the OPEC+ meetings where the oil supply cut decision will be taken (or rejected) by the members.
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Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:44 pm

Libertex trading platform adds 5 CFDs on cannabis shares
Libertex has added five new contracts for difference (CFDs) to its trading platform. Starting from December 11th, 2018, traders using our cross-channel platform will be able to trade with the five hottest instruments, which represent the world’s most popular companies operating in the growing sphere of marijuana production and processing.
CFDs on the following shares are now available in Libertex:
• Tilray,
• Canopy Growth,
• Aphria,
• Cronos Group,
• Aurora Cannabis.
Libertex CEO Michael Geiger said: “Marijuana is fast growing sector in Canada and in the US after having recently been legalized for medical and recreational purposes. This has led to a speedy increase in the amount of companies that now grow weed or produce medical products from the plant. Now, an influx in traders seek ways to include these assets into their trading portfolio. We are pleased to be able to satisfy the demand for these financial instruments and add CFDs for the most interesting stocks within the Libertex trading platform.”
About Libertex:
Libertex is an international brand with more than twenty year experience in financial markets and online commerce. Libertex provides investors with access to trade stocks, currencies, indices, commodities, gold, oil, gas and many other financial instruments. The Libertex team has more than 2,200,000 customers in Latin America, Europe and Asia owing to its first-class service. The platform has more than 150 commercial instruments. In 2016, Libertex was recognized by the Forex EXPO Awards as the best trading platform; and Global Banking and Finance Review named it the best trading application in the EAEU. In 2017, the Forex Awards named Libertex the best trading application and cryptocurrency broker.

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Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:30 pm

Europe’s Investors Still Anxious, Prices Highly Volatile

European stocks are still being struck by volatility, and investors continue to be anxious about the Huawei CFO’s arrest dimming US-China trade talks, which prompted the European Commission to express concerns about the risk of unauthorized data collection by Chinese technology companies in Europe.
Meanwhile, given the recent US economic statistics, traders believe that the Federal Reserve will likely be flexible on plans to ratchet up interest rates in 2019 after this year’s 3 hikes, with the rate raised first in March, then in June, and then in September. Still, a fourth rate hike is expected to happen, and the FOMC meeting on December 18-19 is the likely occasion. So far we don’t know the number of interest rate hikes the Fed has projected for 2019. Though 3 hikes were planned, the regulator might decide to reduce the number should the economy worsen.
The oil market was somewhat eased by the OPEC+ announcing the oil output to be cut next year, with the aggregate global oil supply to be reduced by 1.2 million bpd for 6 months starting January 2019 as agreed in the OPEC+ ministers’ meeting, with the OPEC countries to slow down their oil production by 800k bpd, and the supply from the non-OPEC countries to be cut by 400k bpd.
As news and expectations remain mixed, the European markets are likely to remain very volatile in the offing. Financial scouts are confident that traders will continue to feel uneasy about the global developments.

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Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:49 pm

Pot Stocks’ Fall Continues, As Marijuana Market Corrects to Fair Levels

Cannabis stocks continue their fall as they move deeper into the bearish territory and farther away from the October peaks. After the boom coming on the back recreational marijuana legalization, the stocks now go back down to fair levels.
As marijuana market is massively driven by speculation with its stock prices overinflated, the current prices have been too far from real, with the stocks overbought. Many investors have painted too rosy a picture about the sector’s companies, expecting sales to skyrocket and yield super profits. In fact, many of cannabis producers failed to have a clear and effective business plans, and the expectations of the continuing blasting growth have never become a reality.

Meanwhile, some major cannabis growers like Canopy Growth and Tilray do better than the rest of the segment, even after quite significant segment-wide price sag occurring last week. That said, the two companies’ stock may be good enough to buy for the long-term. A good thing for Tilray, and a long-term catalyst for its stock, is that it might get an appreciable share of the US marijuana market as planned, if cannabis is legalized throughout the US. Meanwhile, Canopy’s strengths are its production scale and market size.

It is likely that the pot sector will continue to lose ground in the week to come. Canopy Growth (СGС) price is expected to drop to $25-$27, Tilray (TLRY) will be down at $95-$97, while Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) and Cronos Group (CRON) are to be priced $3.8-$4 and $9.8-$10, respectively. Aphria Inc. (APHA) stands out with its price really very volatile going 20% up or down intraday. And it looks like this will continue with the price to steadily range from $5 to $5.5.

Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:08 pm

Marijuana Stocks May Become More Upbeat On Major Investors’ Getting Attracted to the Pot Sector, Marijuana Growers’ International Expansion Plans

Canadian marijuana growers’ stocks’ fall was blunted by a bunch of positive news that bode well for the sector. The most important positive cue is that investors expect marijuana to be legalized throughout the whole country in the U.S. If this happens, this is likely to trigger a cannabis sector boom similar to the one that followed the legalization of the recreational marijuana in Canada. Though the pot sector has been spiraling downward for several months in a row after the boom.
Another really positive thing is that major investors are eyeing the sector. Illustratively, the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) scoops up the sector’s stock, specifically, by investing into Tilray, Canadian marijuana producer and a global pioneer in cannabis production and distribution.
What’s more is that Tilray has announced the formation of its International Advisory Board that is an esteemed group of business and government leaders from countries where marijuana is legalized or moving for legalization, who will provide guidance to Tilray’s executive team and Board of Directors as the company pursues its aggressive global growth strategy.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Aurora Cannabis Inc made it clear that it is set to expand into the Mexico’s market by buying Farmacias Magistrales, a Mexican importer of raw materials containing THC.
Financial scouts expect that in the marijuana sector stock will grow appreciably in the days to come, with Tilray (TLRY) to go up to $76-$76.5, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) to climb to $6.5-$7, and Canopy Growth (CGC), Aphria (APHA) and Cronos Group (CRON) to go up to $32-$33, $6-6.5, and $11.5-$12, respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:44 pm

Marijuana Stocks Resumed Fall After a Short-Lived Growth Spree

After the recent short-lived growth spree, Canada’s marijuana growers’ stocks fell back to reality, and so the downslide in the sector continued. Investors, who used to feel really upbeat as they anticipated marijuana to be legalized throughout all the U.S. states, now fear that this might not actually happen. Financial scouts believe that the greatest risk now faced by the pot sector is that marijuana sales may be banned under U.S. federal laws. And even though the ban is not really likely to be imposed, investors are slightly wary that it might be passed.
Meanwhile, the good news that might bolster Tilray stock was that the world’s largest brewer AB InBev and Tilray are teaming up to research cannabis-infused beverages through AB InBev’s Ontario-based subsidiary Labatt, with each partner to contribute up to $50 million to the joint venture. Previously, Tilray also announced an exclusive global distribution agreement for medical marijuana with pharmaceutical giant Novartis.
Still, with the stocks back into the bearish territory, we can expect the prices to sink. In the days to come, Canopy Growth (СGС) might slide down to $27.5, with Tilray (TLRY) likely drop to $70, while Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) Group and Aphria Inc. (APHA) are likely to slide down to $5, and Cronos might fall to $10.5.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:04 pm

Pot Stocks Might Be Up After the Christmas Recess
Canada’s cannabis stocks might grow appreciably after the Christmas trading break. Just before the holiday closing, the pot sector was feeling quite upbeat, with the Aphria Inc NYSE price notching up by a hefty 14% on December 24. The sector has caught the investors’ interest now for multiple reasons. One of them is that the U.S. stock market was brutally downbeat on Christmas Eve, having the worst pre-Christmas day on record. Investors’ being pessimistic about more conventional assets is due to the U.S. political gridlock, with the country’s President Donald Trump not willing to approve the 2019 spending bill without the Mexico border wall funding. As traders get disappointed about the classical investment instruments, they start eyeing more offbeat segments like cannabis and cryptocurrencies (where a pre-Christmas turbulent growth occurred as well). Another driver propelling the cannabis sector upward is the expectations that marijuana might soon become legal throughout the U.S. Should cannabis be legalized federally across the United States, marijuana growers will have a huge market for their produce. And given that the marijuana stocks have been pulled really far back from the October 2018 highs registered after recreational cannabis was legalized in Canada, there’s a really sizeable room for growth for the pot sector. We can expect that after the Christmas Recess in the U.S. Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) might grow to $5.5, while Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) might be up to $27, and Cronos Group Inc (CRON) and Aphria Inc (APHA) might climb up to $10.5 and $6, respectively.
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Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:35 pm

Precious Metals, Marijuana Stocks May Be a Good Choice for Investors for 2019, Cryptocurrencies, Oil Futures To Be Very Volatile.
The upcoming year may bring a lot of unpredictability as far as the market outlook for classical assets is concerned. Stock markets and dollar will continue to face pressure due to the persisting global political tensions and uncertainties like the U.S.-China trade war that has still not been resolved, the oil oversupply fears, and the lack of clarity about further U.S. Federal Reserve stance on the interest rate.
Should the Fed be somewhat back to the accommodative policy and implement fewer rate hikes than planned earlier, the dollar might be headed south.
Meanwhile, more offbeat instruments like cryptocurrencies also do not look too strong and promising. The cryptocurrency market had slumped over 2018, with many bitcoin mining and cryptocurrency companies hurt badly by the downslide. This downward dynamics will probably continue in 2019, as there are no real cues for growth yet.
Marijuana stocks might be of interest to investors now as markets waits for cannabis to be legalized federally throughout the U.S. Should this happen, the post sector stocks will skyrocket.
Precious metals, too, remain a good choice for investors as a safe haven asset to invest into amid volatile market.

Ivan Marchena, analyst of Libertex

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Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:48 pm

Financial Scouts: European Investors Apprehensive of the U.S. Government Shutdown, Possible China’s Economic Slowdown Impact

European stock markets continue facing pressures on the U.S. government shutdown and China’s economic outlook related wariness.
The current government shutdown is the longest in the U.S. history. The U.S. federal government has been in a partial shutdown since December 22, 2018 with a slew of key government agencies such as Department of State, Department of Justice and Department of Transportation affected due to the differences between the country’s President Donald Trump and Democrats over funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall. With great many of the country’s main agencies’ employees not working, the U.S. economy is being hurt really badly, which reverberates onto the global economy overall.
What’s more is that Europe’s investors fear that China’s economy might face challenges, too, with the concerns fuelled by the country’s economic statistics being rather weak lately. The two most downbeat indicators here are the country’s imports and exports that are sliding down on a persisting U.S.-China trade war. And though both countries have made some steps in order to put an end to the situation that is toxic to all parties concerned, there’s still a long way to go until the dispute is finally resolved.
For Europe itself, Brexit remains a burning issue with no deal reached yet, while Britain is slated to leave the EU on March 29 either with or without a deal.


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Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:20 pm

Marijuana Stocks Grow on Corporate News
Canada’s marijuana growers’ stocks traded in the U.S. markets are growing as they stabilize from a harsh correction. However, in the long run, the pot sector is likely to be affected by the U.S. internal political issues that will hurt the market across the board as well.
The U.S. is now seeing the longest government shutdown on record, with a great number of employees at the country’s key agencies not working since December 22, 2018, which is detrimental to the U.S. national economy and its overall stock market overall.
Contrastingly, Tilray (TLRY) stock grew appreciably, as Privateer Holdings that owns the majority of Tilray's outstanding shares, announced it had no plans to “register, sell or distribute” its holdings “during the first half of 2019”. Given that the stock surged higher and kept on going and going above its IPO price, but then finally were back under $100, and with the upcoming IPO lock-up expiration, investors previously feared that some of the cannabis grower’s stock holders might want to sell it.
Aphria (APHA) stock was hurt by the news that its CEO Vic Neufeld and co-founder Cole Cacciavillani will part ways with the company “over the coming months”, which was counterbalanced by the business’ strong figures as its earnings soared by more than 60%.
Meanwhile, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) was bolstered up as its sales were predicted to grow.
Financial scouts anticipate that, in the offing, Canopy Growth (СGС) and Tilray are likely to jump to $40-$41 and $98-$100, while Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB), Aphria Inc. and Cronos Group (СRON) are soon to be priced at $7-$7.5, $7.5-$8, and $14-$15, respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Tue Jan 22, 2019 4:51 pm

Cannabis Stocks’ Prices Grow on the Upbeat U.S. Cannabis Market Outlook
Canada’s cannabis growers’ stocks traded in the U.S. market have been marching vigorously up since 2018 Farm Bill had made hemp, and thus CBD oil, legal across all of the U.S. states.
This news was followed by Canopy Growth’s (CGC) announcement of its having received a license by the state of New York to grow and process hemp and being set to further spread its roots outside Canada, planning to invest somewhere between $100 million and $150 million into its New York-based operations.
Meanwhile, Aurora Cannabis’ CCO said the cannabis grower will unveil a plan to produce hemp-derived CBD for the U.S. market in the next few months.
Contrastingly, Tilray has stood out negatively, as it slid down by about 10% after the IPO lockup had expired. But on the positive side, Tilray will become the preferred supplier for CBD products for Authentic Brands, which might bolster up the cannabis sector’s heavyweight’s stock prices.
Financial scouts predict that the cannabis sector stocks are set to grow in the days to come, given the bright U.S. cannabis market outlook. Specifically, Canopy Growth and Tilray (TLRY) are likely to trade at $44-$45 and $78-$79, respectively. And Aurora Cannabis’, Aphria’s (APHA) and Сronos Group’s (CRON) stock’s respective prices are expected to range $7-$7.5, $7.5-$8, and $16-$17.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Tue Jan 22, 2019 6:09 pm

Signals Mixed for Europe’s Markets
Financial scouts note that European stock markets now face many incoming cues that are really mixed. The biggest current news on both sides of the spectrum is the Brexit uncertainty and the meaningful progress towards resolving the U.S.-China trade war.
So while the Brexit news make investors feel downbeat with Britain’s withdrawal date very close now and no deal approved yet, the U.S. and China seem to be mending their relationship after the spat. European investors are inspired by the news that the extra-high Chinese imports tariffs might be “reduced and removed”, which is a positive cue for European traders who had previously been worried that the U.S. might introduce new increased on car imports from Europe.
Also, traders in Europe are keeping track of the Davos World Economic Forum news, with some important announcements likely to be made there even though some of the key political figures and leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron are not going to Davos this year.
According to financial scouts, another thing that drives Europe’s markets is oil prices that demonstrate ambiguous dynamics. The medium-term positive driver here was the OPEC+ decision to cut the production that was passed in December 2018. So the decreased oil production eased investors’ concerns over possible oil oversupply.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:21 pm

European Market Sentiment to be Driven by Corporate Reporting Figures, U.S.-China Trade War Resolution Progress

European traders (and investors globally, too) are wary that global economy outlook for the years to come might be gloomy. All of the latest statistics updates flag an impending downturn with leading countries’ economic performances to slow down for the short term at least. This is true for the U.S., Asia, and Europe itself.
Hence, in Europe, all eyes on the U.S.-China trade conflict resolution developments, as the persisting trade spat is a major negative driver for all economies across the globe. But then, there have been some positive cues lately, like U.S. President Donald Trump’s upbeat tweets or comments, suggesting that the trade war may eventually be settled. Mr. Trump is confident that fair trade deal will be reached in one way or another.
Another focus of interest catching the European investors’ attention is the European Bank’s stand on the economic growth outlook both for Europe and globally. Recently, the ECB’s economic growth fears have risen in line with its peers’ economic sentiment pattern.
One more important driver that will shape the European stock market dynamics in the offing is the EU business majors’ quarterly reports that have started to be published. So far, the figures look not too good, making investors feel downbeat.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst

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